Trump's spending and wars complicate Republican midterm defense

Republican political groups have deployed nearly $277 million in spending since September to protect their congressional majorities, yet the party faces a steep uphill battle in Tuesday's elections. The campaign is on pace to become the most expensive midterm in history, but financial firepower may not offset the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's policies.

The administration's decision to impose import taxes disrupted agricultural markets and triggered a trade conflict with Canada. These moves have placed Republican Senate candidates on the defensive in states including Iowa, Michigan, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, and Maine. Voters have linked these tariffs to higher prices for groceries and gas, creating a direct economic cost that GOP candidates struggle to distance themselves from.

The war in Iran has further complicated the messaging. Trump initially stated the conflict would end within weeks, but fighting continues eight months later without a clear exit strategy. Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans, called the war a factor that makes it "exponentially harder" for the party to keep control of both chambers of Congress.

Trump's personal financial gains contrast with his public dismissal of affordability concerns. He took in $1.2 billion from cryptocurrency businesses while telling a Georgia rally that he does not "give a damn" about criticism of rising gas prices. Former Democratic President Barack Obama told voters in Ohio that the administration's actions are "directly responsible for rising costs." Trump has also pushed for lavish renovations in Washington, including a White House ballroom that Chief Justice John Roberts called "likely unlawful" and plans for a golf course along the Potomac River.

Historical data suggests midterms are typically tough for the president's party. Democrats gained 40 House seats in 2018 under Trump and 31 in 2006 under George W. Bush. In contrast, Republicans lost fewer than 10 seats in 2022 under Joe Biden. Trump's current approval rating stands at about one-third, lower than his first-term average of 40% and lower than Biden's rating before the 2022 elections.

In Iowa, Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson is navigating the balance between loyalty and independence. She said she would be Trump's "ally when it is important for Iowa, but I will push back on him." Hinson toured an ethanol facility in Dyersville with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, but faced questions about a deal with Russia to lower diesel prices. She noted that relieving sanctions on Russia makes her "a little bit nervous."

Democrats are not without risks. Maryland Governor Wes Moore warned that anger against Trump is a "waning emotion" and that the party must deliver results if it wins. Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan cautioned that voters are not "falling in love with Democrats" and that the midterm election is a reaction to the party in power. She described the potential for a shift as "the $100 million question."