Serbia's new leaders focus on internal fixes before changing foreign policy

Fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party ended Sunday with a decisive victory for the opposition Student List. The win forces a transition in Belgrade as the country prepares for presidential elections in December. International observers are watching to see if the change in leadership will alter Serbia's external stance.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, said that rapid changes in regional relations are unlikely to happen immediately. He explained that the new authorities must first address domestic problems, including a system that has captured democratic institutions. Issues in the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector require attention before Belgrade can focus on its neighbors.

Popov noted that relations with Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo have often been strained by Vucic's rhetoric. He described the situation with Croatia as marked by sharp words, referencing Vucic's recent claim that Zagreb organized a color revolution. Despite public hostility, Popov argued that Belgrade and Zagreb share quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina. He hopes the new government, led by experts and civic leaders, will work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new administration. He stated that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian policy will remain in place. While Moscow never fully trusted Vucic, Vuksanovic said the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. Serbia still needs preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved.

Vuksanovic added that Russian influence will take a hit as Vucic-controlled media lose their uncritical glorification of Moscow. Intelligence cooperation may be downgraded, but Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. He said the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or taking a hard line against Moscow.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that Serbia's close relationship with Israel will not be severed, but recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny. He pointed to new contracts concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia as primary areas for review. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu's government has lost another nationalist ally in Europe, and that Serbia's future stance will depend on political developments in Israel.

Jaksic emphasized that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The new government faces a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.