Israelis Head to Polls in First Election Since 2023 Attacks

Israelis go to the polls Tuesday to choose a government in the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023.

The vote determines the direction of a state managing multiple conflicts, international criticism, and internal divisions. Two main coalitions compete for power. One centers on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposing alliance unites four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance.

A publication ban on polling took effect Friday, freezing the final data. The last survey by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu's bloc. The remaining 18 seats would go to unaffiliated groups, including the Ra'am and Joint List Arab parties. Neither major bloc has ruled out partnering with these groups, though both have signaled reluctance. A party must win at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset.

Voters face key domestic issues, including accountability for security failures before the 2023 attacks and the military exemption for the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also oppose Netanyahu's judicial reform agenda. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal opposition factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

The political context includes a drop in Israel's global standing. Several allies have sanctioned settlements in the West Bank, and many nations have condemned attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. Dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu's September 24 UN General Assembly address, with some booing.

The stakes are high for Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges since 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A defeat could complicate his trial and affect an inquiry into the 2023 attacks.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially winning their parties 15 seats. Campaigners aim for 70 percent turnout, a high mark for decades. The Central Elections Committee recently barred the Joint List and Ra'am, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event. Netanyahu has argued that only Likud can prevent an opposition alliance from partnering with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, said this strategy could keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker prime minister if no bloc wins a majority. About three million Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no vote in the government that controls their borders.