Netanyahu's fate hangs on Israeli election turnout

The election in Israel is expected to be very tight, with no clear winner projected. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to form another coalition similar to his current government, which relies on partnerships with ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties. His main pitches to voters are that only he can form a government without the support of Israel's Arab parties, which he argues would be a danger to the country if they gain enough seats to influence Israel's engagement in its myriad conflicts. He also argues that Israel's campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, and especially Iran are ongoing, and he needs more time to finish what his government started. Right-leaning pollsters give an advantage to the right-wing and religious bloc led by Netanyahu, while left-leaning pollsters show an advantage for the so-called change bloc opposing the incumbent. Most polls show neither side is likely to win a decisive majority of the 120 seats in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, which would enable it to unilaterally form a new government. The tight margins mean the voting may end in a stalemate, which could lead to protracted negotiations across ideological lines, the formation of a minority government, or even an election do-over. There are a few factors analysts believe could hand a victory to either side, and one of them is voter turnout. Past elections have shown voters backing Netanyahu's Likud party, and Arab-Israeli voters, also referred to as Palestinian citizens of Israel, vary the greatest in their enthusiasm to come out on election days, so there could be room for turn-out surprises that significantly change the electoral math in favor of either side. The Arab vote and the ultra-Orthodox draft are also key issues that could influence the outcome of the election.

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a photorealistic news photo of a crowded polling station in Tel Aviv, with people wearing hats and masks, casting their ballots, and a sign in the background that reads 'Israel's Election 2026.' No real or identifiable people, no text, no logos.

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