Brewers Look to Take 3-0 World Series Lead as Rays Host Game 3

The Milwaukee Brewers can move within one win of a championship on Monday night, when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays for Game 3 of the 2026 World Series. Milwaukee leads the best-of-seven series 2-0 and is trying to build a commanding 3-0 advantage.

The Brewers won both opening games at home. The second of those, played Saturday, was a 5-4 comeback victory. Tampa Bay now has to respond in its own ballpark to avoid falling into a deep hole.

First pitch at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Milwaukee will send left-hander Robert Gasser to the mound. He went 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA this season. Tampa Bay will answer with right-hander Freddy Peralta, a former Brewer, who is 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA.

Oddsmakers see the matchup as close. The Rays are listed as a -117 favorite on the money line, while the Brewers are at +102. The over/under for total runs is 7.

SportsLine's computer model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has weighed in on the game. It entered the World Series on a 32-25 run on its top-rated money-line picks, a stretch that returned more than $1,000 for players betting $100 on each. For Game 3, it is leaning toward the Over on 7 runs at -110, and projects 8.5 combined runs. The Over was the value side in 58% of its simulations.

The model's reasoning is that both lineups can score in key moments despite strong starting and relief pitching. The Over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between the clubs. It is also 4-1 in Milwaukee's last five games and 5-4-1 in Tampa Bay's last 10. In games Peralta has started for the Rays, the Over is 7-5-1, and it is 19-14-3 in Tampa Bay games when the total is set at 7.0 or lower.

The model also projects which hitters could be most productive. It expects Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang and Christian Yelich to each record 1.3 or more total bases for Milwaukee. For Tampa Bay, it projects 1.2 or more total bases from Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr., Jonathan Aranda and Cedric Mullins.

SportsLine says its model also found value on one side of the money line, but that pick is available only on its site. Whether Milwaukee extends its lead or Tampa Bay gets back into the series will be settled on the field Monday night.