Aukus Submarine Deal: Former Minister Predicts US Will Keep Vessels
Bob Carr argues Washington will base submarines in Australia rather than transferring ownership, citing strategic concerns over China's naval growth.
By Leah Thompson ·
Former Australian foreign affairs minister Bob Carr stated on a recent podcast that the United States will likely never transfer nuclear submarines to Australia under the Aukus pact. Carr, who served in the role under Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd, claimed that officials in both Canberra and Washington understand the deal is unlikely to proceed as originally drafted. He described the current arrangement between the two nations as them "living a lie."
Carr predicted that US-operated submarines will instead be based in Australian ports. He argued that future American presidents would view China's military strength as a barrier to handing over three or more Virginia-class boats. This assessment challenges the core premise of the 2021 agreement, which was designed to give Australia access to nuclear-powered attack submarines.
The former minister also raised concerns about internal support for the project within defense circles. Carr said that the heavy focus on submarine spending is straining budgets for other military equipment. He warned that rapid technological shifts, particularly those observed in the war in Ukraine, could render the planned submarine capabilities obsolete before they are fully deployed.
Australia has already contributed more than $3 billion to US submarine manufacturing, part of a total commitment of roughly $4.6 billion over the agreement's lifetime. Additional billions are flowing toward infrastructure and workforce development. The deal was negotiated by former prime minister Scott Morrison, then US president Joe Biden, and then British prime minister Boris Johnson, and was signed in 2021.
Current timelines call for Australia to receive its first Virginia-class submarine in 2032, with subsequent vessels arriving at four-year intervals. A purpose-built SSN Aukus model is scheduled to enter service in 2042. However, production delays and rising costs for the US Navy have intensified doubts about the transfer process, which requires presidential approval and depends on American military needs.
Criticism of the pact intensified earlier this month during a crowdfunded public inquiry. Led by former Labor MP Peter Garrett and former defense chief Admiral Chris Barrie, the inquiry recommended ending the agreement immediately. Critics argued the deal could draw Australia into a direct military confrontation with China. The government dismissed the report, noting that former defense ministers Linda Reynolds and Christopher Pyne presented arguments in support of the arrangement.
Defense minister Richard Marles reaffirmed the government's stance this week, declaring that Aukus was "absolutely happening." He characterized the project as Australia's largest industrial undertaking and a major boost to military capability since the navy was established more than a century ago. Marles said the initiative would create thousands of skilled technology jobs while strengthening national security.
