Trump's Aid Cut Forces Israeli Politicians to Reprice the US Alliance

The collapse of the Republican majority in the US midterm elections has exposed a financial vulnerability in Israel's political strategy. President Donald Trump announced on election day that US military aid to Israel would cease, a move that opposition leaders say was traded for his endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month. This shift turns the US-Israel relationship from a diplomatic asset into a fiscal liability for the next government.

Avigdor Lieberman, an opposition leader, quantified the cost of that trade on social media. He stated that the price of Trump's support was $3.8 billion per year. With that funding stream stopping, Israeli officials now face a budgetary hole that must be filled by domestic revenues or reduced spending. This financial pressure arrives as the country prepares to form a new cabinet after the October 27 general election.

The election results left Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 53 seats in the Knesset. That total is eight seats short of the 61 required to form a majority government. The opposition bloc led by former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot holds 48 seats. Two Arab-led parties, the United Arab List and the Joint List, hold a combined 19 seats and have declared they will support Eisenkot for prime minister. Eisenkot's group has rejected a unity government with Netanyahu, leaving the prime minister without a clear path to power.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in security studies at King's College London, noted that Israel's defense budget already accounts for 7 percent of gross domestic product. He said the loss of US funds will force that budget to rise further. Bregman argued that Israelis will feel the impact in their wallets. He added that Israel can no longer act as a rogue state and expect the status quo to remain unchanged.

Yair Lapid, a former prime minister and member of the opposition bloc, pointed to specific policy failures that damaged the alliance. He said US voters are not primarily against Israel, but against what he described as extremist ministers and settler violence. Lapid argued that for many Americans, anything connected to Netanyahu is now politically toxic. This sentiment contributed to the poor performance of the Republican Party, which many analysts link to the war in Iran and the relationship with Tel Aviv.

Netanyahu's position weakened further on Thursday when United Torah Judaism, his longtime ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to recommend him or any other candidate to form a government. This was the first time the party had withheld such a recommendation since 2009. President Isaac Herzog has yet to nominate a candidate for the role, leaving the formation process in limbo. The defection strengthens the hand of Eisenkot and his coalition partners.

However, replacing Netanyahu may not restore Israel's standing in Washington. Shibley Telhami, director of the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, cited an April Pew Research Center survey. The data showed that American public opinion is as negative toward Israel as it is toward Netanyahu. Telhami stated that most Americans would not change their view of the country even if a new government without Netanyahu took office.

Telhami warned that any Israeli government would be swimming against rising public opposition. He said it is unlikely that relations could return to the state they were in five years ago. The financial and political costs of the US election results are now central to the calculations of every faction seeking to form the next government.