Fornelli Backs Notre Dame and LSU in Week 10 Betting Picks

College football analyst Tom Fornelli released his betting recommendations for Week 10 on November 5, selecting Notre Dame and LSU as his primary plays for the weekend. Fornelli, a contributor for CBS Sports, detailed his rationale for choosing these two matchups over other high-profile games involving top-ranked teams. He noted that while the Holy War between Utah and BYU and the game between Georgia and Ole Miss feature top-10 teams, he lacked strong conviction in the betting lines for those contests. Instead, he focused on games where he perceived clear value from a gambling perspective.

Fornelli projects that Notre Dame will exceed a team total of 31.5 points in their home game against No. 1 Miami. The primary driver for this pick is an injury to Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney, who suffered an ankle injury days before kickoff. Fornelli argued that the absence of Toney lowers Miami's offensive ceiling and forces their defense to spend more time on the field. Miami's defense has allowed 93 points in its last three games against opponents ranked 47th or lower in points per possession. In contrast, the Notre Dame offense ranks third nationally in points per drive and has scored on 59.0% of its possessions. Fornelli believes the Fighting Irish will capitalize on the increased defensive workload faced by the Canes.

In the second major pick, Fornelli selected LSU to defeat No. 5 Alabama by more than 5.5 points. He expressed skepticism about Alabama's current ranking, suggesting the committee's pod system may have inflated the Tide's standing. Fornelli highlighted that Alabama's offense ranks 105th in pressure rate allowed, a vulnerability that LSU's defense exploits. LSU ranks sixth nationally in pressure rate and second in sack rate. Fornelli noted that Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell was sacked nine times in his previous two games against Georgia and Tennessee. While acknowledging that LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has improved his ball security recently with the help of returners, Fornelli believes the physical mismatch in the pass rush favors the Tigers at home.

Fornelli designated his lock of the week as Michigan, predicting a victory of at least 13.5 points over Michigan State. The Wolverines enter the game following a 28-21 win at Rutgers, a contest where special teams issues nearly cost them the lead. Despite a shaky performance, Fornelli observed that the Michigan defense dominated the second half of that game and that starting quarterback Tommy Carr appeared comfortable. The Spartans face this rivalry game after losing six consecutive matches and dealing with significant defensive injuries. Fornelli believes the bye week will not be enough to reverse Michigan State's downward trend against a home Michigan team.

Additional recommendations from Fornelli include a fade on Cincinnati, which he expects to lose to No. 17 Houston by 10.5 points. He cited Cincinnati's physical fatigue after a 49-25 loss to Utah the previous week, contrasting it with Houston's recent week off. For the principle play, he took the under in the Texas State at Oregon State game, citing slowing offensive production and potential weather factors including gusts up to 35 mph. Finally, Fornelli identified No. 23 Oregon as a value upset pick against No. 12 Ohio State, noting that the Ducks have looked more cohesive on offense since changing their offensive coordinator. He expects Oregon's experienced backup quarterback to outperform Ohio State's true freshman starter in a home game for the Buckeyes.