Ontario Fuel Costs to Hold Steady After Democratic Midterm Win

Ontario gasoline prices are projected to remain stable this weekend, a shift attributed to the Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. midterm elections. Energy markets reacted to the election result by lowering oil prices, a trend that analysts expect to persist. The recent drop in market values follows a period of volatility driven by the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Dan McTeague, head of Canadians for Affordable Energy, provided specific price forecasts following the market close on Friday, November 6. He noted that energy market fluctuations typically appear at local pumps two days later. For the Greater Toronto Area, he predicted a one-cent per litre increase for regular gasoline on Saturday, followed by a one-cent decrease on Sunday. This adjustment would place the peak morning price for regular gasoline at 160.9 cents per litre on Sunday.

Diesel prices are expected to follow a similar but steeper trajectory. McTeague anticipates a four-cent per litre rise on Saturday and a two-cent drop on Sunday. This calculation sets the Sunday morning diesel price in the GTA at 236.9 cents per litre. He indicated that these Sunday rates are likely to hold through Monday and Tuesday, with no major changes expected in the immediate future.

The underlying pressure on fuel costs stems from the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran launched on February 28. In response, Iran targeted Middle Eastern nations hosting U.S. military assets and vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency states that approximately 25 per cent of the world's seaborne oil trade and 19 per cent of liquefied natural gas move through this narrow waterway.

The United States countered Iran's initial blockade by imposing its own restrictions on Iranian shipping and ports. These blockades have been lifted and reinstated repeatedly during the intermittent fighting. The disruption has reduced the flow of oil to global markets, driving up prices worldwide. Because Canadian oil is traded in U.S. dollars on the global market, domestic prices mirror these international fluctuations regardless of where the oil is purchased.

McTeague advised drivers to monitor timing and location when refueling. He stated that stations in the GTA reduce their profit margins in the evening. "Never buy your gas before 6 p.m. in the GTA," he said. He also noted that prices are generally lower outside major urban centers, suggesting that travelers should fill up before leaving the city to secure cheaper rates.